Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees

Kickoff (UTC+8)：2026-07-25 06:45

Latest Odds

Line Movement (open → latest)

TimeHomeAwayOver/Under
07-24 05:301.7922.0978.00
07-24 12:301.7802.1907.50
07-24 21:001.8002.1607.50
07-25 01:301.7602.2107.50

AI Deep Analysis

Yankees’ Cam Schlittler (2.20 ERA, 145 K) dominates as a heavy underdog at Citizens Bank Park—value play on the road

This matchup’s angle

Cam Schlittler is the best pitcher on the field by a mile, yet the Yankees are priced as underdogs at Citizens Bank Park. That’s the entire story.

Balance of power

Starting pitcher: Yankees (Schlittler 2.20 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 145 K in 123 IP) > Phillies (TBD) — Schlittler’s FIP and xFIP both sit below 3.00, confirming his ERA is no fluke

Lineup vs. handedness: Yankees (.735 OPS, 4.71 RS/G) > Phillies (.727 OPS, 4.35 RS/G) — NYY’s righty-heavy order feasts on RHP (1.008 OPS vs RHP)

Bullpen: Phillies (4.27 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) > Yankees (3.84 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) — PHI’s relief corps is slightly worse, but both are middle-of-the-pack

Starting pitcher deep dive

Schlittler’s 2026: 9-6, 2.20 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 145 SO, 25 BB, 12 HR in 123 IP. His platoon splits are elite: vs RHH (.549 OPS, .190 AVG), vs LHH (.610 OPS, .215 AVG). He’s allowed just 12 HR all year (0.88 HR/9) and his fastball/slider combo (avg exit velo 87.9 mph, barrel rate 8.3%) generates weak contact. Recent form: 1-1, 2.84 ERA in July, with 22 K in 19 IP. He’s never faced PHI, so the element of surprise works in his favor. Today: He’s as safe as it gets for a road ace.

How the lineups match up

Yankees’ bats vs RHP: .734 OPS (2026), but their core righties (Rice .956 OPS, Bellinger .764 OPS, Volpe .663 OPS) have crushed right-handed pitching. Phillies’ TBD starter means we can’t pinpoint a weakness, but their bullpen’s 4.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP suggest they’ll struggle to hold leads. NYY’s lineup is built to punish RHP, and Schlittler’s dominance suppresses PHI’s offense.

What the market is saying

The market has the Phillies as favorites, but the data says otherwise. Schlittler’s 2.20 ERA and 0.96 WHIP are elite, and his platoon splits (.549 OPS vs RHH) align with NYY’s righty-heavy lineup. The Phillies’ bullpen (4.27 ERA) is a liability, and their TBD starter is a red flag. The market’s home bias is overrating PHI here—the value is on the Yankees’ moneyline.

Park and injuries

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter’s haven (108 park factor), but Schlittler’s ground-ball tendency and elite control (2.0 BB/9) limit damage. No major injuries reported for either side that would swing this matchup.

Total lean

Schlittler’s 0.88 HR/9 and the Yankees’ bullpen (3.84 ERA) keep runs down. Both lineups are above-average, but the park factor (108) and Schlittler’s dominance push this toward the under. The most likely scores: 3-2, 4-2, 2-1—all under 7.5.

Conclusion: I’m on

Push

away_ml

Reason

Cam Schlittler’s 2.20 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and elite platoon splits (.549 OPS vs RHH) give the Yankees a clear edge over a Phillies team with a TBD starter and shaky bullpen

Confidence

65%

Schlittler’s numbers are real, but a hot Phillies lineup or a rare off-night from the Yankees’ ace could flip the script

Biggest risk

Phillies’ TBD starter could be a hidden gem, or Citizens Bank Park’s 108 park factor could turn a few fly balls into homers

Model Pick：away_ml（Confidence 65%）

Analysis text is generated by an AI research engine from our in-house data pipeline (odds, results, score simulation); model picks are settled and published daily.

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