St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Kickoff (UTC+8)：2026-07-24 05:15

Final Score：St. Louis Cardinals 6 - 10 Arizona Diamondbacks

Latest Odds

Line Movement (open → latest)

TimeHomeAwayOver/Under
06-25 05:301.7602.1529.00
07-17 19:301.7802.1908.50
07-24 05:301.4433.6279.00

AI Deep Analysis

Cardinals’ McGreevy outduels Pfaadt at home, with data and market both leaning St. Louis for the win and over 8.5

This Game’s Angle

The Cardinals’ home edge isn’t just about the park—it’s about Michael McGreevy’s ability to limit damage (2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) while Brandon Pfaadt’s command (7.1% BB%, 1.22 HR9) and recent outings (2 ER in each of his last two starts) leave Arizona vulnerable to a St. Louis lineup that feasts on righties (0.704 OPS vs RHP).

The Scale

Starter Form & Risk

McGreevy’s last five starts: 1.83 ERA, 21 IP, 5 ER, 18 K, 4 BB, 2 HR, and a fastball that’s dipped 1.1 mph recently (86.4 mph avg). His control (5.6% BB%) and low HR9 (1.17) keep him safe, but the velocity drop and a tired pen (170 pitches/3 days) are red flags if he exits early. Pfaadt’s last five: 1.85 ERA, 27.2 IP, 6 ER, 13 K, 1 BB, 1 HR, but his season-long 7.1% BB% and 1.22 HR9 mean he’s one walk or fastball leak from a big inning. Today, McGreevy is the steadier hand, Pfaadt the higher explosion risk.

Lineup vs the Starter

Cardinals vs Pfaadt (RHP): Alec Burleson (0.938 OPS vs RHP, 296 PA) and Jordan Walker (0.848 OPS vs RHP, 310 PA) lead a lineup that’s above league average (0.715) against righties. Pfaadt’s fastball (22%, 93 mph) and cutter (20%, 93 mph) are his main weapons, but Walker (11 PA, 0.364 OPS) and Iván Herrera (11 PA, 0.382 OPS) have struggled against him in small samples. St. Louis can hurt him, but Pfaadt’s stuff keeps it competitive.

D-backs vs McGreevy (RHP): Gabriel Moreno (0.856 OPS vs RHP, 225 PA) and Geraldo Perdomo (0.742 OPS vs RHP, 296 PA) are the threats. McGreevy’s fastball (25%, 92 mph) and changeup (20%, 87 mph) are his primary pitches, and Masyn Winn (13 PA, 1.238 OPS, 1 HR) has crushed him in the past. Arizona has the bats to tag him, but McGreevy’s recent run suggests he’s up to the task.

What the Market Knows

The market prices St. Louis at 54.8% (1.790) and Arizona at 45.2% (2.170). The data net tilt is 1:0 home (injuries, bullpen, starter FIP), matching the market’s direction. The line moved from 9.0 to 8.5 on the total, with the over now at 1.970—reflecting the simulated 47.5% over probability and both lineups’ ability to square up same-handed pitching. The price is fair, but the value is on the home side.

Park & Injuries

Busch Stadium’s park factor is 99 (neutral), with a forecasted southwest wind at 6.7–13.4 mph and gusts up to 31.2 mph—slightly favorable to hitters. Injuries: Cardinals have 8 on the IL, D-backs 14, but neither starter is affected. No major last-minute absences to shift the balance.

Total Trends

The simulated total is 8.5, with a 47.5% chance of going over. Both teams average over 4 runs per game in simulations (Cardinals 4.53, D-backs 3.96), and their last six meetings averaged 9.5 runs. McGreevy’s low HR9 (1.17) and Pfaadt’s recent control (0 BB in last two starts) are offset by tired bullpens and hitters who can punish mistakes. The data leans slightly over, but it’s close.

Conclusion: Where I Stand

Recommend: home_ml

Reason: McGreevy’s superior recent form and the Cardinals’ lineup advantage vs RHP

Confidence: 59% (data and market align, but Pfaadt’s upside and tired pens add risk)

Biggest Risk: Pfaadt’s command holds and McGreevy’s velocity dip leads to an early exit, flipping the script to Arizona

Model Pick：home_ml（Confidence 59%）

Analysis text is generated by an AI research engine from our in-house data pipeline (odds, results, score simulation); model picks are settled and published daily.

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