Mirassol FC vs Grêmio FBPA

Competition：Brasileirão 2026｜ Kickoff (UTC+8)：2026-07-18 07:00

Final Score：Mirassol FC 2 - 1 Grêmio FBPA

Latest Odds

AI Deep Analysis

Mirassol host Grêmio in a mid-table Serie A clash; data favors home side for value on the win and over 2.5 goals

Pre-Match Overview

Balance of the Scale

Recent Form

Mirassol’s last five: L 3-1, W 1-2, W 1-0, L 1-0, L 1-0. Their form is inconsistent, but their xG and simulated attack (1.42) suggest they can create chances at home. Grêmio’s last five: D 1-1, W 2-0, W 3-2, D 2-2, L 1-3. Their defense is shaky, especially with so many absentees, and their away form is a concern.

Tactical Duel

Mirassol, playing at home, are likely to press high and use width to exploit Grêmio’s weakened backline. Grêmio, missing several key players, may struggle to control the midfield and could be forced into a more direct, counter-attacking style. The hosts’ ability to dominate possession and create from the flanks could be decisive.

Key Players & Injuries

Mirassol are without Willian Machado (suspension), Igor Formiga, and Negueba (both injured). Grêmio’s absentees are far more damaging: José Enamorado (suspension), Marlon, João Pedro, Luis Eduardo, Cristian Pavón, Gustavo Martins, Gabriel Grando, and Juan Nardoni (謹慎評估jured). This severely limits Grêmio’s options in both attack and defense.

Corner Analysis

This item could not be verified from available sources; no reliable corner stats for either side in 2026 Serie A were found.

Goals & Totals

The simulation projects a total of 2.4-2.5 goals (Mirassol 1.42, Grêmio 1.08). BTTS probability is 50.0%, and the most likely scores are 1:1 (12.6%), 1:0 (11.7%), and 2:1 (8.9%). Both teams have shown a tendency to concede, and with Grêmio’s defensive issues, over 2.5 goals is a strong possibility.

Odds Market

The market’s devig probabilities (home 46.3%, draw 28.6%, away 25.1%) are closely aligned with the simulation (45.0%, 26.5%, 28.5%). The home win odds (1.975) are fair, but the value appears on the over 2.5 market, where the simulated probability (45.5%) is near the threshold, and the market’s 2.141 for over offers a slight edge given the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.

Conclusion & Recommendation

Mirassol’s home advantage, stronger squad, and higher xG make them the slight favorite. The most likely outcome is a low-margin home win or a draw, but the value play is on the home side and over 2.5 goals, supported by the defensive frailties and the BTTS trend.

Model Pick：home（Confidence 50%）

Analysis text is generated by an AI research engine from our in-house data pipeline (odds, results, score simulation); model picks are settled and published daily.

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