Moneyline and 1X2: The Simplest Bet, the Least Simple Price
Just pick the winner—but the whole market's judgment is baked into the odds
The Rules
Moneyline: you back a team to win the game, straight up—no spread. Baseball, basketball, and tennis are two-way (pick one of two); soccer, because draws exist, is a three-way market—home win / draw / away win, commonly called 1X2 (1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win, settled on 90 minutes, penalty shootouts excluded).
The Odds Are the Price the Market Sets
The reciprocal of decimal odds equals the market's implied win probability. Home odds of 1.60 mean the market gives the home side roughly a 62.5% chance to win (1÷1.60). Add up the implied probabilities of all three outcomes and you'll get more than 100%—the excess is the bookmaker's vig, typically 4–7%.
Strip out the vig and the "true market probabilities" come to roughly: home 45.4% / draw 28.1% / away 26.5%.
Short Odds ≠ Good Bet
A heavy 1.20 favorite carries an 83% implied win probability—and the 17% of the time it loses will wipe out the profit from a five-bet winning streak in one shot. The test is always whether "your estimated win probability" is higher than "the odds' implied win probability", not whether the odds are long or short. This is +EV thinking (see the expected value guide), and you can check the math directly with the expected value calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions
In 1X2, does a draw count as a loss?
If you back the home win or the away win and the match is level after 90 minutes, you lose (unless you bet the "draw" option). A knockout-round penalty shootout does not count toward the 1X2 result.
What win probability does odds of 1.80 represent?
The implied win probability is 1÷1.80≈55.6% (this includes the vig, so the actual market estimate is slightly lower). Your own estimated win probability has to be higher than this number for the bet to be worth it.