Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets

Kickoff (UTC+8)：2026-07-21 07:40

Final Score：Milwaukee Brewers 8 - 3 New York Mets

Latest Odds

Line Movement (open → latest)

TimeHomeAwayOver/Under
07-20 05:301.5502.5787.50
07-21 02:001.5202.7707.50
07-22 21:001.5002.8407.50

AI Deep Analysis

Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski (1.62 ERA, 1.88 FIP) dominates as a heavy favorite at home, while Freddy Peralta’s 4.66 ERA and Mets’ weak split vs righties seal the edge for Milwaukee.

This Game’s Angle

The Brewers’ home ace Jacob Misiorowski (1.62 ERA, 1.88 FIP) is a runaway favorite to outduel Freddy Peralta (4.66 ERA, 4.24 FIP), with the Mets’ lineup historically weak against right-handed pitching (0.692 OPS) and Misiorowski’s dominance making this a mismatch on paper.

The Scale Today

Starting pitcher floor: Misiorowski’s 1.88 FIP and 39.6% K% → Brewers hold the edge

Lineup vs. handedness: Brewers’ 0.761 OPS vs RHP > Mets’ 0.692 OPS vs RHP → Brewers hold the edge

Bullpen: Brewers’ 3.09 ERA vs Mets’ 4.28 ERA → Brewers hold the edge

Starting Pitcher Form and Strength

Misiorowski’s last five starts: 7.0 IP/3 ER, 5.0 IP/1 ER, 6.0 IP/1 ER, 6.0 IP/2 ER, 9.0 IP/0 ER—consistently deep, with a 96.7 mph fastball and 0.73 HR9. He’s only allowed more than 2 ER once in that span and averages over a strikeout per inning. Today, he’s a low-risk, high-reward arm.

Peralta’s last five: 4.3 IP/2 ER, 4.7 IP/1 ER, 4.0 IP/5 ER, 5.7 IP/0 ER, 2.7 IP/10 ER—three of five outings with 5+ ER or early exits. His 1.29 HR9 and 9.4% BB% scream vulnerability, especially against a Brewers lineup that posts a 0.761 OPS vs righties. Today, he’s a ticking time bomb.

Lineup vs. the Starter

The Mets’ lineup vs righties (0.692 OPS) is below league average, and their best righty-mashers—Juan Soto (1.047 OPS vs RHP) and Francisco Alvarez (0.792 OPS vs RHP)—are the only real threats. Misiorowski’s 100 mph fastball (62% usage) and 88 mph curveball (12%) have never been seen by 8 of 13 Mets batters, giving him a clear edge in unfamiliarity.

The Brewers’ lineup vs righties (0.761 OPS) is above average, with Brice Turang (0.907 OPS vs RHP) and Jake Bauers (0.878 OPS vs RHP) leading the charge. Peralta’s 94 mph fastball (53% usage) and 79 mph curveball (14%) are far less intimidating, and 11 of 13 Brewers have never faced him—another point for the home side.

What the Market Thinks

The market’s 64.6% implied probability for the Brewers aligns with the data: Misiorowski’s FIP (1.88) vs Peralta’s (4.24) is a massive gap, the Brewers’ lineup OPS vs RHP (0.761) outclasses the Mets’ (0.692), and the Brewers’ bullpen ERA (3.09) is far superior to the Mets’ (4.28). The only offset is injuries (Brewers 11, Mets 8), but the data still leans 3-1 toward Milwaukee. The line has moved from 62.5% to 64.6% toward the Brewers, confirming the consensus.

Park and Injuries

American Family Field’s park factor is 89 (pitcher-friendly), with 26°C temps and 17 kph wind—neutral conditions. Injuries are already priced in: Brewers have 11 on the IL, Mets 8, but neither starter is affected.

Total Points: Over or Under

The simulated over probability is 47.5% for 7.5, leaning under. Misiorowski’s 0.73 HR9 and Peralta’s recent blowups (10 ER in 2.7 IP on June 20) suggest volatility, but the Brewers’ bullpen (3.09 ERA) is reliable, and the Mets’ lineup struggles vs RHP. The most likely scores (3:2, 4:3, 2:1) all favor the under. This game leans under 7.5.

Conclusion: Where I Stand

Recommend: home_ml

Reason: Misiorowski’s elite 1.88 FIP and 39.6% K% vs Peralta’s 4.24 FIP and 1.29 HR9 create a massive starting pitcher gap, and the Brewers’ lineup OPS vs RHP (0.761) outclasses the Mets’ (0.692).

Confidence: 70% — The data is overwhelming, but Peralta’s volatility and the Mets’ occasional power (Soto, Alvarez) keep it from being a lock.

Biggest Risk: Peralta gets pulled early, but the Brewers’ bullpen is tired (180 pitches in 3 days), and a Mets’ late rally could flip the script.

Model Pick：home_ml（Confidence 70%）

Analysis text is generated by an AI research engine from our in-house data pipeline (odds, results, score simulation); model picks are settled and published daily.

More Match Analysis

賽事雷達 Match Radar｜ Today｜ Scores｜ World Cup 2026｜ Daily Recap