New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Kickoff (UTC+8)：2026-07-20 00:35

Final Score：New York Yankees 2 - 8 Los Angeles Dodgers

Latest Odds

Line Movement (open → latest)

TimeHomeAwayOver/Under
07-18 05:301.9451.9108.50
07-19 11:001.9601.9608.50
07-21 20:302.1301.8207.50

AI Deep Analysis

Yankees’ Schlittler vs Dodgers’ Yamamoto: Data leans home, but market splits the difference—value on the Bombers at near-evens.

This Game’s Angle

The Yankees’ Cam Schlittler—owner of a 2.05 ERA and 2.74 FIP—faces off against the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.85 ERA, 3.27 FIP) in a matchup where the data and the market tell slightly different stories. The line sits at near-pick’em, but the underlying numbers suggest the Bombers are being undervalued at home.

The Scale

Starting Pitcher Form and Risk

Schlittler’s last five starts: 6.7 IP/2 ER, 8.0 IP/1 ER, 4.0 IP/6 ER, 5.0 IP/0 ER, 6.0 IP/0 ER. The blip (6 ER vs Tigers) is the only red flag, but his 95+ mph fastball and 29.2% K% (with a 5.3% BB%) show elite control and swing-and-miss stuff. Yamamoto’s last five: 6.0 IP/6 ER, 7.0 IP/0 ER, 6.0 IP/2 ER, 6.0 IP/3 ER, 8.3 IP/1 ER. His 24.9% K% and 5.9% BB% are solid but a tier below Schlittler’s. Today, Schlittler is the more stable, higher-ceiling arm.

Lineup vs Pitcher Matchups

Dodgers’ lineup vs RHP: OPS 0.783, led by Shohei Ohtani (0.944 OPS vs RHP, 286 PA) and Freddie Freeman (0.920 OPS vs RHP, 284 PA). Yankees’ lineup vs RHP: OPS 0.748, with Ben Rice (1.036 OPS vs RHP, 260 PA) and Aaron Judge (0.890 OPS vs RHP, 185 PA) as the standouts. Crucially, the Dodgers have never faced Schlittler (100% unfamiliarity), while 9/13 Yankees have seen Yamamoto before. Schlittler’s fastball-heavy mix (98 mph four-seamer, 94 mph cutter) plays up against a lineup that’s never timed him up. Yamamoto’s split-finger (27% usage, 91 mph) is his money pitch, but the Yankees’ core has experience against him, reducing the mystery.

What the Market Is Pricing In

The market’s devig implies a 49.2% home win probability, but the data net leans Yankees: 4 factors in their favor (starting pitcher baseline, bullpen, injuries, unfamiliarity) to 1 for the Dodgers (lineup vs RHP). The market’s near-pick’em line suggests it’s either overlooking Schlittler’s edge or pricing in Yamamoto’s reputation. The gap between data and market is the value: Yankees are underpriced at 1.990.

Park and Injuries

Yankee Stadium’s park factor is 97 (slightly pitcher-friendly). Yankees are missing Judge, Stanton, Schmidt, Fried, and Rodon; Dodgers are without 11 players, including Glasnow, Snell, and Diaz. The injury edge is marginal but favors the Yankees, as their absences are less impactful to the lineup than the Dodgers’.

Total Points: Over or Under

The simulated total points probability for Over 7.5 is 49.5%, with the most likely scores being 2-3, 3-2, and 3-4. Both starters suppress runs (Schlittler’s HR9: 0.91, Yamamoto’s: 0.98), and both bullpens are fresh. The data leans under, as the combined expected runs (7.88) is inflated by the park factor and the market’s line has already moved from 8.5 to 7.5—money is flowing under.

Conclusion: Where I Stand

Recommend: home_ml

Reason: Schlittler’s superior FIP, K%, and 100% unfamiliarity to the Dodgers’ lineup give the Yankees a data-backed edge at near-evens.

Confidence: 53% (data leans home, but the market’s split implies a tight, volatile game)

Biggest Risk: Dodgers’ Ohtani/Freeman core (0.944 and 0.920 OPS vs RHP) could solve Schlittler if he leaves a fastball over the plate.

Model Pick：home_ml（Confidence 53%）

Analysis text is generated by an AI research engine from our in-house data pipeline (odds, results, score simulation); model picks are settled and published daily.

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