New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Kickoff (UTC+8)：2026-07-18 07:05

Final Score：New York Yankees 1 - 2 Los Angeles Dodgers

Latest Odds

Line Movement (open → latest)

TimeHomeAwayOver/Under
07-16 17:301.9301.930—
07-19 14:002.0001.9208.50

AI Deep Analysis

Dodgers at Yankees: Sasaki’s first Yankee Stadium test vs. Cole’s shaky form—value leans away with under

This matchup’s angle

The Yankees host the Dodgers in a marquee interleague clash where the narrative is flipped: Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ ace, is the steadier arm on paper, while Roki Sasaki—making his first career start at Yankee Stadium—brings both upside and explosion risk. The market prices this as a coin flip, but the data reveals a subtle edge for the away side, especially when paired with the under.

The scale today

Starting pitcher form and explosiveness

Gerrit Cole’s 4.04 ERA is backed by a 3.98 FIP, with a 22.7% K rate and 1.47 HR9. His last five starts: 6.3 IP/3 ER, 5.0 IP/2 ER, 5.3 IP/4 ER, 4.3 IP/5 ER, 6.0 IP/2 ER—only one true blowup, and his fastball remains at 92.3 mph. Today: leans stable, but not dominant.

Roki Sasaki’s 5.33 ERA/5.40 FIP and 2.11 HR9 are red flags, with three of his last five starts allowing 5+ runs and three failing to reach 5 IP. His fastball is still 92.2 mph, but the long ball and control (9.4% BB) are liabilities. Today: high explosion risk, especially in a hitter-friendly park.

Lineup vs the starter’s handedness

Dodgers lineup vs RHP: OPS 0.786, led by Shohei Ohtani (0.958 vs RHP, 282 PA) and Freddie Freeman (0.935 vs RHP, 280 PA). Freeman also has a 1.059 OPS in 22 PA vs Cole, while Ohtani is just .334 in 6 PA—small sample, but a split to watch. Cole’s fastball/slider mix (46%/19%) will be tested by a lineup that feasts on righties.

Yankees lineup vs RHP: OPS 0.750, with Ben Rice (1.041 vs RHP, 257 PA) and Aaron Judge (0.890 vs RHP, 185 PA) as the top threats. Crucially, the Yankees have never faced Sasaki—13/13 hitters are seeing him for the first time, which often favors the pitcher in the early going.

What the market is pricing

The market’s devig implies a 49.7%/50.3% split, but the data leans Yankees (3-2 in the five key categories). The fact that the Dodgers are still at 1.95 suggests the market is accounting for Sasaki’s volatility and the Yankees’ injury list (Judge, Stanton, Rodon, etc.). The line move from 9.0 to 9.5 on the total indicates money on the under, aligning with both starters’ HR9 and the sim’s 52.2% probability for under 9.5.

Park and injuries

Yankee Stadium’s park factor is 97 (slightly hitter-friendly), with 29°C and light wind. Injuries: Yankees missing 5 (Judge, Stanton, Rodon, Schmidt, Fried), Dodgers missing 11 (Glasnow, Snell, Diaz, Miller, Stone, Graterol, etc.). The Yankees’ absences are more impactful, especially in the lineup.

Total: Over or under?

The sim gives under 9.5 a 52.2% chance, and both starters have HR9 above 1.4. Cole’s recent stability and Sasaki’s explosion risk, plus the Yankees’ injury-depleted lineup, point to a lower-scoring game than the total suggests. The most likely scores (4-3, 5-4, 3-4) all sit under 9.5.

Conclusion: Where I stand

Recommend away_ml

Reason Dodgers’ lineup feasts on RHP (0.786 OPS) and Sasaki’s 100% unfamiliarity to Yankees hitters offsets his volatility; market underprices the away side at 1.95

Confidence 52% (data leans Yankees, but Dodgers’ price and Sasaki’s upside create value)

Biggest risk Sasaki gets lit up early (HR9 2.11, 3 of last 5 starts with 5+ ER) and Yankees’ bullpen (2.03 ERA) slams the door

Model Pick：away_ml（Confidence 52%）

Analysis text is generated by an AI research engine from our in-house data pipeline (odds, results, score simulation); model picks are settled and published daily.

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