Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
Kickoff (UTC+8)：2026-07-07 06:40
Final Score：Tampa Bay Rays 1 - 5 New York Yankees
Latest Odds
- Moneyline：Home 2.070｜Draw 0.000｜Away 1.860
- Spread 1.50：Home 1.660｜Away 2.400
- Over/Under 7.50：Over 2.130｜Under 1.820
Line Movement (open → latest)
| Time | Home | Away | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 05:30 | 1.850 | 2.016 | 7.50 |
| 07-10 22:00 | 2.070 | 1.860 | 7.50 |
AI Deep Analysis
Rays’ hot bats and Jax’s stability edge Yankees’ shaky Schlittler—lean home ML at Tropicana’s neutral park.
This matchup’s angle
The Rays are rolling at home with a lineup built to punish right-handed pitching, while the Yankees send out Cam Schlittler—a starter whose glittering 2.08 ERA masks a 4.32 FIP and a 1.69 HR9 that screams regression. Griffin Jax, on the other hand, is the steadier hand, and Tropicana’s neutral park (99) won’t bail out Schlittler’s long-ball issues.
The scale right now
- Starter floor: Jax’s 3.20 FIP and 0.68 HR9 beat Schlittler’s 4.32 FIP and 1.69 HR9 → Rays
- Lineup vs handedness: Rays OPS .764 vs RHP, Yankees OPS .757 vs LHP (but Jax is RHP) → Rays
- Bullpen: Yankees’ pen is gassed (268 pitches/13 appearances last 3 days); Rays’ is fresher → Rays
Starter deep dive
Jax (RHP) has been consistent: 3.45 ERA/3.20 FIP, 23.2% K, 8.4% BB, 0.68 HR9, and only one of his last five starts saw him fail to finish five. His fastball sits 90.4 mph, and he’s coming off a 6 IP, 0 ER gem vs KC. Schlittler (RHP) is the opposite: 2.08 ERA but 4.32 FIP, 1.69 HR9, and two of his last five starts lasted under five innings. His last outing: 4 IP, 6 ER vs DET. Today, he’s a blowup waiting to happen against a Rays lineup that feasts on righties.
How the lineups match up
Rays vs RHP: .764 OPS (league avg ~.715). Junior Caminero (0.914 OPS vs RHP, 276 PA) and Jonathan Aranda (0.913 OPS vs RHP, 263 PA) are the headliners. Yankees vs LHP: .757 OPS, but Jax is RHP, so this split doesn’t help them. The Rays’ righty-mashing core is primed to tee off on Schlittler’s mistake-prone stuff.
What the market’s saying
Opened with Rays at 52.1% implied, now 51.2%—money’s drifting to the Yankees, but the sim says Rays should be 54.5%. The line hasn’t caught up. Home ML at 1.884 is undervalued, especially with Schlittler’s HR9 and the Yankees’ exhausted pen. The total is 7.5, but the sim’s most likely scores (3:2, 4:3, 2:3) and both starters’ recent trends point to a tighter, lower-scoring game.
Park, weather, and health
Tropicana Field (99 park factor) is neutral. 30°C, 16 kph wind—no major weather edge. Injuries: Yankees are without Judge, Stanton, Rodón, Schmidt, and Chisholm Jr. (day-to-day). Rays have 9 on IL, but none affect today’s lineup. Jax and Schlittler are confirmed starters.
Over/Under
Sim says 50.3% for over 7.5, but Schlittler’s HR9 and the Rays’ power could push it over. However, Jax’s low HR9 and the Yankees’ cold bats (.155 BA, .271 SLG last 10 games) pull it back. The most likely scores (3:2, 4:3, 2:3) are all under 7.5. Lean under, but it’s close.
My call
I’m on home ML. Jax is the steadier arm, the Rays’ lineup is built to exploit Schlittler’s weaknesses, and the Yankees’ bullpen is a ticking time bomb. I’ve got about 65% confidence—this is a spot where the market’s still catching up to the real edge.
Model Pick：home_ml（Confidence 65%）
Analysis text is generated by an AI research engine from our in-house data pipeline (odds, results, score simulation); model picks are settled and published daily.
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